Week 11 - Technology Assessment and Forecasting

This week, we had a thought-provoking lesson on Technology Assessment and Forecasting. Prof highlighted that every time we have developed and adopted new innovations, we have gone ahead without thinking of the profound consequences that our actions have for Mother Earth. We have inadvertently caused harm to our planet’s survival and sustainability whilst pursuing our dreams of a “better” world. As always, we learn in retrospect; looking back in hindsight, everything “could have” or “should have” been done better.

It is becoming more and more important for leaders and businesspeople to have the foresight to anticipate the implications of future trends in technology and innovation. It is vital that every possible eventuality is addressed in a smart and mature way so as to prevent further damage to Mother Earth and maximize the benefits of innovations in an equal and sustainable way.

Basically, forecasting global trends allows us to be proactive in responding to change and enables us to bring the right sort of change in the world.  So instead of finding ourselves as victims of change, we can drive the change by smartly anticipating future trends in technology. With scarce resources and limited time, we need to make the right decisions and set the right priorities when looking at pursuing different technologies. Therefore anticipating the social, economic, ethical and environmental ramifications is crucial.   

Additionally, assessing the reliability of the assumptions made when predicting future trends is paramount. This is because if the assumptions we use to predict the future are flawed, then the whole basis on which our predictions lie is compromised, thus rendering our predictions useless.

Of course, the further in the future you venture, the greater the uncertainty becomes. This is why very few people like Gene Roddenberry (creator of Star Trek), H. G. Wells and Steve Jobs have been able to look so far into the future. It is interesting how Steve Jobs created his vision of the future by developing a a product which had never been wanted (summit opportunity) and marketing it in such a way that everyone wanted it when it was sold. He worked backwards from his vision of the future instead of relying on current trends; he made the trends!

Personally, I hope to become competent at seeing the future (makes me sound like a waanabe fortuneteller) as this will allow me to conquer change – the only constant in the world.  

I’d give this session a 9, as I thoroughly enjoyed the discussions and had the opportunity to glean some great insight.

Week 10 - Emerging and Future Technologies

This week, we had an intriguing session on Emerging and Future Technologies. We talked about the greater ability of people today to develop new technologies that were considered unimaginable a few years ago due to the exponential rate at which technology is advancing through aggressive research and development. The more technology advances, the more it catalyses its advancement, hence resulting in its exponential growth.


We discussed the interesting phenomenon of Supply creating new demand in the cases of summit opportunities that don't yet have a market and that target unformed needs and wants. An excellent example of this is Apple's iPhone and it's rapid creation of new wants in our society since its sale.  


We then talked about emerging technologies that are set to affect our lives in time to come. I believe that Nanotechnology is going to be  the most pervasive and influential technology of the future. This is because, it will enable us to re-engineer all our materials, objects and even our bodies! The disruptive prospects it holds, such as nano-medicine, nano-electric devices and nano-energy, are truly mind-blowing. The ability to transmit and store electricity super efficiently, process data at a much faster rate and cure diseases far more effectively by targeting cells, is truly amazing.      


I found some of the quotes given by Prof Shahi very illuminating: 

“You see things; and you say, 'Why?'

But I dream things that never were; and I say, 'Why not?'”

- George Bernard Shaw -

This beautiful quote highlights the importance of an open mind for a rising star; how vital it is to think outside the box and venture into paths less travelled. Of course, it is always much easier said than done. It has become a rule of thumb of sorts that visionaries are always the minority. I strongly hope to be able to keep my cauldron of creative juice full throughout my life...        

“Imagination is more important than knowledge.

For knowledge is limited to all we now know and understand, while imagination embraces the entire world, and all there ever will be to know and understand.”

- Albert Einstein -

Again, these are fascinating words emphasizing the importance of going beyond what is already known and discovering "new knowledge", which is in effect, imagination. Nevertheless, I feel that pure imagination, without knowledge-backed actions to fructify that imagination, is useless. Einstein would not have been able to make his dreams come true without his extensive knowledge and acumen in science.  

“There is a space between man's imagination and man's attainment that may only be traversed by his longing”

- Kahlil Gibran -

This motivating quote shows how important it is to have determination and perseverance in order to realise one's dreams. 


I'd give this week's session a 9.

Week 9 - Energy and World Change

This week we had an interesting session on Energy and World Change. We discussed the rising energy crisis where the scarce fossil fuel reserves are facing the ever-increasing desire of our insatiable economies. We talked about the adverse ramifications of the use of fossil fuels such as global warming; and the need for sustainability and renewability in our future energy utilization, without which, the planet will become far less habitable for generations to come.

The very Mother Nature who has given us life is being betrayed and tortured by us – careless and ungrateful humans who speak of integrity and love but continue to ravage her of her valuable resources and ability to provide such a delicate ecosystem for us.

History has shown that the opportunity cost of greater economic success is the burning of greater amounts of fuel. Countries like India and China face a scary dilemma. Should they continue to use greater and greater resources to realize their economic potential and the dream of having the standard of living of the West? Or should they forget about those dreams as they are not green and will further destroy the sustainability of this planet? The answer that satisfies both questions is Green Innovation which will allow India and China to flourish with efficiency and, at the same time, not destroy this planet.

It is great to know that China is the world’s largest investor in green technology. India clearly needs to do more in this field and seems like an ideal candidate to develop cheap green solutions as it has been successful in providing inexpensive technologies in the past such as the world’s cheapest car – Tata Nano. In addition, Brazil’s superb adoption of sugar-cane based alcohol as a mainstream fuel shows that necessity is truly the mother of invention. 

Singapore would do well to take a leaf out of Germany’s book; it should install solar panels throughout and should capitalize on it’s location on the Equator. It is surprising that Germany, which receives much less sunlight than Singapore, has been successful in capitalizing on solar technology whilst Singapore is dismally ineffective in this area.

I’d give this session a 9.

  

Individual Topical Review Paper/Report Draft

My TWC Individual Topical Review Report Draft can be viewed through the following link:

https://skydrive.live.com/redir.aspx?cid=baffb27c3c4b73a7&resid=BAFFB27C3C4B73A7!127&authkey=eDXvROt6oS8%24


Thank You!

Week 7 - BioBusiness Revolution 2

This week we had another interesting session focusing on the BioBusiness Revolution. We also discussed the effects of urbanisation on agriculture and how one-fourth of the world's population, which is rural and agricultural,  would support the remaining three-fourth that resides in the towns and cities of this fragile planet.


I found it highly interesting to learn about the need to protect intellectual property when Prof Shahi gave the example of the dilemma the firm he was working with to set up a Vaccine Institute faced when embarking on its initiatives. An important conclusion was reached after looking at different cases where research facilities had chosen either to make their intellectual property available for free or to hold on to patents and charge for it's licensing. The conclusion reached was that, in order for a business to remain sustainable and resilient in the long run, it was in its greater good to charge for its intellectual property and plough back money into itself to further improve research and actually continue to make a difference in the world.


It was eye-opening to learn about Norman Borlaug, the unsung hero of the Green Revolution. He spearheaded the research and introduction of resilient, hybrid crops that gave far higher yields and resisted disease. His amazing work saved Mexico, India and China from predicted doom and billions of people from starvation. I find it surprising and disappointing that I hadn't heard of him before. At the same time, I am glad that I now have and that I have given the appreciation he deserves. I strongly believe that such unsung heroes must be given the popularity, appreciation and adulation they deserve. We people can often be very shallow, especially when giving due credit to those who matter. We choose to glorify mere celebrities and, at the same time, forget and ignore the profound achievements of people who actually make a difference in the world! So here's my shot-out to Mr. Borlaug: "Sir, I am deeply grateful!!"


An intriguing notion put across by a reviewer of Prof Shahi's work on the BioBusiness in Asia, was that educated farmers of the future "with specialised knowledge and skills across a wide range of disciplinary areas" should be more appropriately described as "farmists". This highlighted the need for farmers to become  semi-scientists in order to take agriculture to the next level and meet the rapidly growing demand of food whilst utilising lesser and lesser fertile land. Also mentioned, was the idea that the potential for growth in the agriculture market is immense as agriculture is transformed from a Valley Opportunity to a Summit Opportunity.


We debated on the use of genetically modified foods; I personally feel that without them we will have little hope of feeding a world population of around 10 billion people in years to come. The only issue I have with GM foods is that they should be free from harmful side-effects and should be compatible with our bodies. We also discussed about how waste management and the capitalisation of the value of waste, such as the use of biomass energy, was essential to the survival and sustainability of this planet.  


Lastly, I enjoyed the round of grabbing presentations we had at the end of the lesson. I'd give this session a 9.