Week 11 - Technology Assessment and Forecasting

This week, we had a thought-provoking lesson on Technology Assessment and Forecasting. Prof highlighted that every time we have developed and adopted new innovations, we have gone ahead without thinking of the profound consequences that our actions have for Mother Earth. We have inadvertently caused harm to our planet’s survival and sustainability whilst pursuing our dreams of a “better” world. As always, we learn in retrospect; looking back in hindsight, everything “could have” or “should have” been done better.

It is becoming more and more important for leaders and businesspeople to have the foresight to anticipate the implications of future trends in technology and innovation. It is vital that every possible eventuality is addressed in a smart and mature way so as to prevent further damage to Mother Earth and maximize the benefits of innovations in an equal and sustainable way.

Basically, forecasting global trends allows us to be proactive in responding to change and enables us to bring the right sort of change in the world.  So instead of finding ourselves as victims of change, we can drive the change by smartly anticipating future trends in technology. With scarce resources and limited time, we need to make the right decisions and set the right priorities when looking at pursuing different technologies. Therefore anticipating the social, economic, ethical and environmental ramifications is crucial.   

Additionally, assessing the reliability of the assumptions made when predicting future trends is paramount. This is because if the assumptions we use to predict the future are flawed, then the whole basis on which our predictions lie is compromised, thus rendering our predictions useless.

Of course, the further in the future you venture, the greater the uncertainty becomes. This is why very few people like Gene Roddenberry (creator of Star Trek), H. G. Wells and Steve Jobs have been able to look so far into the future. It is interesting how Steve Jobs created his vision of the future by developing a a product which had never been wanted (summit opportunity) and marketing it in such a way that everyone wanted it when it was sold. He worked backwards from his vision of the future instead of relying on current trends; he made the trends!

Personally, I hope to become competent at seeing the future (makes me sound like a waanabe fortuneteller) as this will allow me to conquer change – the only constant in the world.  

I’d give this session a 9, as I thoroughly enjoyed the discussions and had the opportunity to glean some great insight.